Posts Tagged investments

Fundamental models for loans spreads

A popular approach to estimate the credit risk of an issuer is the use of z-scores. In this context, Altman’s five components framework has attracted particular interest. On the company level, it is based on the five metrics.

Replacing the company-specific metrics by macroeconomic factors yields a fundamental model for the credit market. Because of the required minimum history and data reliability we will focus on the US market. Data for this procedure is taken from the flow of funds statistics and the national accounts of the United States.

The ratio of working capital to total assets measures the net liquid assets of a firm relative to the sum of financial and tangible assets. We isolated net liquid assets for the US nonfinancial corporate sector from the flow of funds statistics by subtracting mortgages, consumer credit, trade receivables and miscellaneous assets from total assets and subsequently adding inventories, trade and tax receivables.

The large fall in 1974 is due to a significant decline in the value of trade payables. Usually, the ratio of working capital to total assets falls in a recession. But there also seems to be a secular downtrend in this ratio.

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Word About Costs When Creating a Budget Plan – part 2

Variable costs are a little different and allow you some budgeting flexibility. These are costs that fluctuate directly with the amount of business you support. Variable costs—costs that are business-dependent—include supply of goods and materials and, to some degree, part-time labor necessary to keep the business operating apace with demand.

Semi-variable costs are expenses with components that are fixed and components that are variable. For example, telephone expenses are semi-variable costs in that the monthly service charge is fixed and the charges for long-distance calls and the 800 number are variable.

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Word About Costs When Creating a Budget Plan – part 1

When budgeting for labor costs, the distinction to keep in mind is between direct and indirect. Direct labor costs are those incurred in any work on products or services that can be tracked readily, such as wages for assembly line workers. Indirect labor costs are for activities related to products or services that are not readily tracked, such as salaries for supervisors and support personnel. Both direct and indirect labor costs can be either fixed or variable.

Let’s look at the three types of costs that make up the expenses part of a budget.

Fixed costs are perhaps the most important costs to manage. They are the costs that remain constant throughout and are impervious to the cycle of business. The rent you pay from month to month is a fixed cost because it doesn’t vary no matter what your sales pattern might be. To a large degree, salaries also are fixed costs, although they may have variable components in terms of performance bonuses. Utility costs are the same way. Any expense that remains constant no matter what the cycle of business is a fixed cost.

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Budget Components – part 3

A capital budget sets aside funds for capital expenditures. These are primarily new pieces of equipment or facilities, to be used over a period of years. Strategic in nature, a capital budget involves looking at the long-term profit that’s likely to come from investing in that equipment or building.

Many companies allow for flexible budgeting, a process by which budgets are adjusted to match output and/or marketplace factors that influence the company’s revenues and expenses. Companies with a sudden short-term, unbudgeted income opportunity may create a flexible budget that adds to the expense side of the equation, but also adds corresponding revenues from product sales.

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