Archive for category Money Tips
The ratio of sales to loans and assets
Posted by admin in Business plans, Companies, Money Tips, Taxes, communication, market demand, market forecasts, profit margin, understanding finances on October 28th, 2009
The ratio of sales to assets is an asset turnover ratio that measures the sales-generating capacity of a given asset base. Taking the nominal GDP of the nonfinancial corporate sector as a measure for sales. The ratio has started to turn up at the beginning of 2001. This pattern is normally consistent with periods of recovery. However, it should be noted that this ratio is near its historical low. The z-score for the nonfinancial corporate sector has collapsed dramatically since 2000, resting well below the critical level of 1.8 since the second quarter of 2002. For an individual firm this signals that the company is likely to fail within 2 years. On the macro level it indicates a high probability of rising default rates and widening credit spreads. Three points stand out:
- based on macroeconomic data the z-score has never been in the safe zone;
- the average score since 1952 is about 2;
- in the 1970s and 1980s, the z-score was permanently in the distress zone implying that corporate America should have gone bankrupt, but clearly it survived.
This leads to the conclusion that the weighting scheme is no longer appropriate to capture the vulnerability of the corporate sector. The relative importance of the individual factors changes over time. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the weighting scheme on a regular basis, for example by using a regression methodology.
Fundamental models for loans spreads
Posted by admin in Companies, Money Tips, consulting, credit, liability, management skills, manufacturing, material costs on October 25th, 2009
A popular approach to estimate the credit risk of an issuer is the use of z-scores. In this context, Altman’s five components framework has attracted particular interest. On the company level, it is based on the five metrics.
Replacing the company-specific metrics by macroeconomic factors yields a fundamental model for the credit market. Because of the required minimum history and data reliability we will focus on the US market. Data for this procedure is taken from the flow of funds statistics and the national accounts of the United States.
The ratio of working capital to total assets measures the net liquid assets of a firm relative to the sum of financial and tangible assets. We isolated net liquid assets for the US nonfinancial corporate sector from the flow of funds statistics by subtracting mortgages, consumer credit, trade receivables and miscellaneous assets from total assets and subsequently adding inventories, trade and tax receivables.
The large fall in 1974 is due to a significant decline in the value of trade payables. Usually, the ratio of working capital to total assets falls in a recession. But there also seems to be a secular downtrend in this ratio.
How to compensate for default payday risk
Posted by admin in Global Markets, Money Tips, financial information, fixed costs, marketing, material costs on October 23rd, 2009
The spread needed to compensate for default risk depends upon future default rates, recovery rates and ratings transition probabilities. The rating agencies publish their forecasts of future default rates based on historical data. Usually required spreads come out significantly lower than current spreads for investment grade companies. For high yield, however, observed spreads tend to be too low, given the actual risk of default. While over the long term buy-and-hold strategies may earn an excess return over government bonds for pure investment grade portfolios, this strategy is not appropriate for high-yield portfolios. Here, investors need to focus much more on the process of selecting the right companies and avoiding the blowup names. A look at historical data shows that market spreads tend to overshoot at the end of credit cycles, especially in the wake of a recession.
For example, even if the historically high default rates of 1990/91 had persisted over the following years, investors should have required a BBB credit spread of only 115 bps for medium-term bonds. At that time the average market spread for BBB-rated issues, however, peaked at more than 180 bps.
Consequently, the market was much too bearish in 1991. Conversely, in 1997, at the beginning of the severe bear market for credit, spreads were too tight for the period of downgrades and credit blowups that followed. Note that these observations apply for bonds with a maturity of roughly 4 years.
While the cushion is not as comforting as for shorter maturities, even at the long end the spread levels reached in recessions provide sufficient protection, even when assuming that default rates stay high for a sustained period of time.
The 3 Steps of Investing
Posted by admin in Financial Advice, Global Markets, Investment Opportunities, Money Tips on August 4th, 2009
To get from the chaos of your investment life to your comfort zone, you need to take three steps: study the emotional content of different investments, study your own emotional makeup, and match your emotional makeup to the appropriate investments.
To avoid confusion, I have divided this book into three steps rather than three parts:
Step 1: Chapters 3 through 7 set out the emotional content of the different investments. Step 1 requires study but no writing or analysis. The material in Step 1 will also be used as a reference when you reach Step 3. Per the discussion in Step 1, saving, investing, and speculating are different activities. However, throughout this book, the term “investor” is used to signify a person engaged in all three activities unless otherwise specified. The term “investment” also includes savings, investments, and speculations unless clarified. Among other things, Step 1 is about learning the difference between a saver, an investor, and a speculator.
Step 2: Chapter 8 shows you how to study your emotional makeup. It requires writing and analysis. Step 2 is the workbook section of Comfort Zone Investing.
Step 3: Chapters 9 matches you to the appropriate investments.
Defining Budget Type – part 2
Posted by admin in Companies, Money Tips, expenditures, financial growth, production cycles on July 30th, 2009
Longer business cycles require longer-lived budgets. Even though they may be subject to review and revisions, some items or operations unfold more fully over a longer time period. This results in a longer-term or strategic budget. While the operational budget anticipates financial flow for a year or less, the strategic budget reacts more intrinsically with a company’s long-term business plan. The net effect may be a less precise, but more comprehensive approach to financial management.
Not all companies need to create a strategic budget. Your company may be one of those happy to project from year to year, knowing that retained earnings and reserves may be all you need to set the stage for the subsequent year’s financial growth. On the other hand, if the company is involved in major capital acquisition that will depreciate over time, includes extensive research and development that runs up expenses for years before any revenue might be realized from the project, or involves extensive investment plans that will take several years to bear fruit, then a strategic budget may be more appropriate.
Business Plan Shortfalls – part 2
Posted by admin in Business plans, Companies, Money Tips, management skills on July 29th, 2009
These words of advice are intended to help you avoid problems with lenders and investors. But they are also sound guidelines for your business plan even if you don’t expect it to be read by a single outsider. All the employees of a company—from top managers down to the mail room—are lenders and investors: they lend their abilities and invest their energy in your company. If your business plan fails to support their hopes and inspire them, you risk turning those employees—no matter what their level of responsibility or pay—into wage slaves.
Many business plans are created with a circular approach that offers a summary at both the beginning and the end, using the points in between to enhance the introductory summary so the concluding summary is more complete and comprehensive. For investors, it answers the question, “Why should we invest in this company?” It can save the reader time and give a company a greater opportunity to attract the type of financing it seeks.
Business Plan Shortfalls – part 1
Posted by admin in Business plans, Money Tips, Real estate, management skills on July 29th, 2009
Every good business plan consists of certain elements. But there’s also a list of things that should be avoided when creating a plan:
Inaccuracies will kill any plan. People won’t give money to companies that can’t count. It should go without saying that you need to be absolutely accurate in everything from addition to spelling. (Yes, even spelling, because some people may believe that inattention to accuracy in spelling might be symptomatic of inattention to accuracy elsewhere.)
More is not always better! Plans must be complete but succinct. Plans that run on for pages, with attachments from every financial document generated, generally turn off people who don’t have the time to read them—and today that’s most of us. Answer the questions that likely will be asked, clearly and succinctly. Good move!
Don’t underplay management team skills. The number one reason investors walk away from companies is concern over management. Plans should showcase the strengths of your managers and tie their skills directly to both the needs and solutions for the company. After all, the success of a company cannot be predicted from figures alone. Who is behind those figures? Who will be leading the company toward its goals?
Don’t editorialize. Or, as a colleague liked to put it, “Tell, don’t sell.” Keep the tone of the plan factual and professional. As soon as the plan becomes familiar or promo tional in its flavor, investors are likely to smell a sales pitch and walk.
Don’t just write your plan and shelve it. Use your annual plan to improve company per formance and involve as many of the appropriate staff as possible in developing it.
Business Plan Objectives
Posted by admin in Business plans, Investment Opportunities, Money Tips, Real estate on July 29th, 2009
The first step in developing a business plan is to define its key objective. Is it an annual plan used to drive business operations? Or is it a financial plan designed to attract investors and/or lenders? Is it both? It often is—and that’s not at all bad…if the plan meets everyone’s needs and if the language and goals don’t conflict.
Business plans can take as many forms as necessary and include as many financial addenda as required. Balance sheets and financial reports are usually critical components in a business plan. Some companies seem to attach virtually every financial document available.
Assuming the numbers support the text, however, the real area of interest for most executives, financiers, and even staff will be the assumptions behind the plan. Why is the company expected to sell 150,000 units this year after selling only 50,000 last year? The assumption will make or break the success of the business plan. Show the thinking behind your figures.
How Bad is it?
Posted by admin in Global Markets, Investment Opportunities, Money Tips, Real estate on July 20th, 2009
When it comes to eliminating your debt, we’ve arrived at that point. It’s time for you to pull back the sheet and see how ugly this thing really is. It’s time to grab pen, paper, and calculator and get the numbers on paper.
For now I just want you to break down your debts between long- and short-term debt. If you’ll recall from Chapters 2 and 3, long-term debt includes your mortgage and student loans, while short-term debt includes credit cards, car loans, medical bills, and everything else.
Add everything up and record the numbers here:
Total short-term debt: $___________
Total long-term debt: $___________
Cross-fertilization of ideas in investing abroad
Posted by admin in Money Tips, Real estate, Save Money, Taxes on June 12th, 2009
By investing abroad, not only can you get the benefit of a cross-fertilization of ideas, but you can also benefit from a cross-fertilization of projects. In New Zealand I am involved with a boutique hotel and a small vineyard. To many people, this may just be of passing interest, but my colleague and friend Rich Lamphere recognized a tremendous opportunity to link the New Zealand operation to his extensive project in northern California that also includes a vineyard and boutique hotel.
Rich is a true visionary with a big heart, and is living proof of Zig Ziglar’s maxim that “You can get whatever you want, so long as you help enough other people get what they want.” By offering guests in either country wines from both projects, reciprocal hotel perks, combined frequent-user benefits, and an excuse and incentives to use the other country’s facilities, both projects benefit.
As for the claim that real estate is so complex, and the laws so involved, that it is difficult to keep up with the regulations in your own turf, let alone a foreign country, these critics need to get a passport (I would put money on it that they do not have one), jump on a plane, and go somewhere where they have never been before. Of course real estate is complex, even at home. In fact, it is so complex that even at home you should barely do any of it yourself.