Archive for category Financial Advice

Measure for mortgage profitability

A common measure for profitability is the ratio of retained earnings to total assets. We defined retained earnings as undistributed profits, that is, after-tax profits minus dividend payments. Like the working capital ratio, the profitability measure is on a downtrend in the longer term. During recessions the profitability of the companies usually declines. It is worth noting that the latest recession in 2001 marks an exception with respect to the ratio of internal funds to total assets. Whereas the profitability declined like in any other recession before, the cash flows of the companies on average improved in this period due to rigorous cost cutting in the corporate sector.

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Changes in credit quality

With regard to the above-mentioned problems, rating migrations seem to be a more reliable indicator of changes in credit quality than default rates. Given that the risks of downgrade as well as default vary over time, the question is whether credit spreads compensate investors adequately.

Since the sample for the calculation of rating transition matrices is much broader than for default rates, they are less likely to be biased by changes of the rating agencies’ universe. To measure changes of credit quality over time, the ratings drift, that is the number of upgrades minus the number of downgrades, as a proportion of the total number of entities rated, can be a valuable indicator. A sample of high-quality issuers, however, will tend to have more downgrades than upgrades, and vice versa. Hence, variations of the ratings drift partly reflect changes in average credit quality over time.

As one would expect, credit spreads tend to rise when the ratio of upgrades to downgrades becomes worse.

The question, however, is, whether the credit spreads widen enough to compensate investors sufficiently for the  deterioration of average credit quality that is reflected by a falling ratings drift. While predicting the direction of spread changes may help to make money on a mark-to-market basis, it is not adequate for buy-and-hold investors. They have to estimate the magnitude of the spread widening that corresponds to an observed deterioration of credit quality. Hence, the focus is purely on credit risk, while credit spreads also incorporate liquidity premia, and are influenced by technical factors and market sentiment.

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The 3 Steps of Investing

To get from the chaos of your investment life to your comfort zone, you need to take three steps: study the emotional content of different investments, study your own emotional makeup, and match your emotional makeup to the appropriate investments.

To avoid confusion, I have divided this book into three steps rather than three parts:

Step 1: Chapters 3 through 7 set out the emotional content of the different investments. Step 1 requires study but no writing or analysis. The material in Step 1 will also be used as a reference when you reach Step 3. Per the discussion in Step 1, saving, investing, and speculating are different activities. However, throughout this book, the term “investor” is used to signify a person engaged in all three activities unless otherwise specified. The term “investment” also includes savings, investments, and speculations unless clarified. Among other things, Step 1 is about learning the difference between a saver, an investor, and a speculator.

Step 2: Chapter 8 shows you how to study your emotional makeup. It requires writing and analysis. Step 2 is the workbook section of Comfort Zone Investing.

Step 3: Chapters 9 matches you to the appropriate investments.

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Basics of accounting – part 2

Why do accountants use the double-entry system? Well, we could explain how the system is based logically on the principle of duality, because all activities with any economic significance have two aspects—resources and uses, work and reward, loss and gain. Or we could simply point out that recording every transaction twice dramatically reduces the chance of error. The bottom line is that the system works, although it occasionally seems to defy common sense. Don’t expect to understand it all completely now. Our discussion of the general ledger and subledgers should help make more sense of debits and credits.

The most common structure for financial documents, based on the need to distinguish between debits and credits, is the T account diagram. The left side of the T represents debits and the right side of the T represents credits. In the accounting process, a figure is recorded as a debit (left side) or as a credit (right side) depending on how the transaction affects that particular account.

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Investing Abroad

A few years back I was shown a property by Craig Donnell, a colleague who consistently ferrets out opportunistic deals, in Melbourne, Australia. The building was located directly opposite the University of Melbourne, and comprised 12 stories of student accommodation (277 rooms) along with ground-floor retail space and a basement. (See Figure 22.1.) There was a new 10-plus-5-plus-5-year lease in place to the university at a starting rental of A$950,000 per annum, with annual reviews in line with the consumer price index (CPI). To an outsider looking at market cap rates, returns, location, strength of lease, and in deference to the fact that the building had been completely renovated, it appeared as though the building was being offered at a price substantially above market. This would also explain why it had not sold.

However, this building also highlights the need to conduct thorough due diligence. It turns out that despite the recent renovations, the building did not comply with the fire code. Before long, the students had to be evacuated and relocated, and the university commenced legal action against the owner. We were informed that an offer would be entertained by the owner, who was eager to extricate himself from the situation.

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Real Estate and Opportunities of Investing abroad

Bear in mind that one of the tremendous advantages of real estate is that you do not need most of the money required to buy a property—banks willingly provide those funds in the form of a mortgage. In general, banks will not lend money on real estate purchased abroad,1 so if you were to buy a NZ$10 million property in New Zealand, you may only need NZ$1 million or less as a down payment from your own country—the rest is financed locally.

If the value of this investment over time goes from NZ$10 million to NZ$20 million, then not only have you made a 1,000 percent return on your cash investment of NZ$1 million, but the NZ$10 million profit, expressed in U.S. dollars, will also have gone up (or down) according to the change in exchange rate.

Secondly, many people claim that investing overseas is unpatriotic, as it diverts resources away from your home country to other countries. This is pure nonsense for two reasons. As we have just been reminded, when you invest in real estate in a foreign country, most of the funds required for an acquisition are provided by a locally sourced mortgage. Furthermore, claiming that investing abroad diverts funds away from your own country ignores the fact that the explicit purpose of any investment is to generate a return and (should you ever sell) a capital profit, both of which will eventually be brought back to your country.

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Real Estates Taxes

Although tax shouldn’t be the most important consideration when choosing a property, it’s not to be overlooked. The tax implications vary in complexity and impact according to the country you are investing in and what you intend to do with the property. In addition, you need to take into account that the United States taxes you on your worldwide income. Taxes levied on international property investments usually fall into the following categories:

  • Capital acquisitions tax, inheritance tax, stamp duty, or transfer tax for purchasing, inheriting, or transferring property
  • Local and national property taxes and land tax for owning and/or residing on the property
  • Income tax on rents received, of which there may be additional taxes imposed on nonresident or foreign landlords
  • Capital gains tax, gift taxes, or death duties and estate taxes for disposing of the property

To avoid or minimize taxation, there are countries or jurisdictions with no taxes on income or capital gains, such as the Turks and Caicos Islands. However, some of these tax havens are an option only for the very wealthy who are willing to contribute substantially to the local economy and purchase luxury real estate, and some of these locations limit the number of foreigners permitted residence or work permits. In comparison, governments in nontax-haven countries tend to impose fewer restrictions on nonresidents purchasing property, yet the likelihood is that you will face more taxes on your investment. But some high-tax countries provide advantages over the long term. For instance, in France rents over the last fifty years have averaged a net operating income (NOI) of about 7 percent, which is not terrific. But if you hold onto the property for at least fifteen years, your tax on capital gains is vastly reduced. And when you consider that property values have gone up about the same rate as rents, you will have an enormous gain.

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