Archive for category consulting
Learn how to value corporate credit
Posted by admin in Business plans, Companies, bonds, budget, business, communication, consulting on October 29th, 2009
One of the most widely used indicators to value corporate credit is the equity market. The Merton model formalizes the relationship between leverage, equity prices, equity volatility and credit spreads. While the model permits an assessment of the relative valuation of equity and credit, it makes no explicit statement about which of the markets is currently priced correctly, or if both markets are in disequilibrium. In addition, focusing solely on equity prices and volatility neglects the effects of changes in leverage. However, equity-market performance contains information about the future state of the economy, the future cash flows and risk premium in the market. Stronger cash generation benefits corporate bonds since creditworthiness improves and the required risk premium is lower. Furthermore, as the equity cushion increases through rising equity prices and more IPOs and equity volatility decreases, default probabilities and spread levels tend to fall.
Fundamental models for loans spreads
Posted by admin in Companies, Money Tips, consulting, credit, liability, management skills, manufacturing, material costs on October 25th, 2009
A popular approach to estimate the credit risk of an issuer is the use of z-scores. In this context, Altman’s five components framework has attracted particular interest. On the company level, it is based on the five metrics.
Replacing the company-specific metrics by macroeconomic factors yields a fundamental model for the credit market. Because of the required minimum history and data reliability we will focus on the US market. Data for this procedure is taken from the flow of funds statistics and the national accounts of the United States.
The ratio of working capital to total assets measures the net liquid assets of a firm relative to the sum of financial and tangible assets. We isolated net liquid assets for the US nonfinancial corporate sector from the flow of funds statistics by subtracting mortgages, consumer credit, trade receivables and miscellaneous assets from total assets and subsequently adding inventories, trade and tax receivables.
The large fall in 1974 is due to a significant decline in the value of trade payables. Usually, the ratio of working capital to total assets falls in a recession. But there also seems to be a secular downtrend in this ratio.
Changes in credit quality
Posted by admin in Financial Advice, bonds, business, communication, consulting, economy, expenditures on October 22nd, 2009
With regard to the above-mentioned problems, rating migrations seem to be a more reliable indicator of changes in credit quality than default rates. Given that the risks of downgrade as well as default vary over time, the question is whether credit spreads compensate investors adequately.
Since the sample for the calculation of rating transition matrices is much broader than for default rates, they are less likely to be biased by changes of the rating agencies’ universe. To measure changes of credit quality over time, the ratings drift, that is the number of upgrades minus the number of downgrades, as a proportion of the total number of entities rated, can be a valuable indicator. A sample of high-quality issuers, however, will tend to have more downgrades than upgrades, and vice versa. Hence, variations of the ratings drift partly reflect changes in average credit quality over time.
As one would expect, credit spreads tend to rise when the ratio of upgrades to downgrades becomes worse.
The question, however, is, whether the credit spreads widen enough to compensate investors sufficiently for the deterioration of average credit quality that is reflected by a falling ratings drift. While predicting the direction of spread changes may help to make money on a mark-to-market basis, it is not adequate for buy-and-hold investors. They have to estimate the magnitude of the spread widening that corresponds to an observed deterioration of credit quality. Hence, the focus is purely on credit risk, while credit spreads also incorporate liquidity premia, and are influenced by technical factors and market sentiment.
Innumerable financial and accounting schemes
Posted by admin in consulting, fixed costs, market forecasts, profit margin on October 5th, 2009
Innumerable financial and accounting schemes, all legal, also dilute your share of profits. Accounting tricks include non-deducted stock options, accruing unearned sales and commissions, classifying big losses as nondeducted special items, and counting pension gains as income. All tricks make earnings appear higher than they really are. Creating huge reserves in a bad year is common as well. This allows the company to then post high earnings in succeeding years. Many companies also use cash flow to speculate in the stock of hot companies. This boosts profits quickly, though it turns a solid business into a volatile investment fund. Companies also finance purchases by shaky customers. This boosts sales and profits in the shortterm but leads to huge write-offs later when the shaky customers fail.
All these accounting tricks inflate profits short-term. Higher profits justify higher salaries, bonuses, and grants of stock options. When these tricks are discovered and set right, earnings are restated and your stock price collapses. However, bonuses and salaries are long gone and stock options cashed. A series of legal accounting schemes can siphon off all earnings and leave the company bankrupt and you holding a worthless stock certificate.
Enron is a recent example. Enron used off balance sheet entities to inflate profits and enrich management. When the tricks were discovered, the stock price collapsed; outside shareholders ended up with penny stocks.
Understanding Debits and Credits – part 1
Posted by admin in Business plans, Companies, communication, consulting, understanding finances on August 3rd, 2009
You’ll find in subsequent chapters that the accounting function has many steps and components. Although they may vary in complexity, all bookkeeping and accounting systems are essentially the same.
The concept behind accounting, what makes it more than merely adding and subtracting, revolves around a basic core consisting of debits and credits. This is an accounting system’s soul, and understanding it will help managers better handle their share of responsibility for the firm’s finances.
In some ways, debits and credits are more complex in theory than in practice. Debits and credits form the basis of all accounting functions, including the company’s balance sheet. They are the two types of activity that can affect any financial account of any type— assets, liabilities, equity, income, or expenses.
The balance sheet is one of the primary accounting statements for any company. It’s a list of assets, liabilities, and owners’ equity—ownership value, if you will—in the business as of a specific date, usually the end of the financial month or fiscal year. Its ultimate goal is to keep all accounts in balance.
Managers’ Great Expectations and Accounting
Posted by admin in Companies, consulting, financial information, revenue, variable costs on August 3rd, 2009
The essence of managerial expectations is found in what’s called basic accounting ARTS—meaning that in reporting financial data, the accounting function should be Accurate, Relevant, Timely, and Simple.
Given the important role of accounting, it only stands to reason that managers have certain expectations of the accounting function, including the following basic principles:
The accounting system must accurately reflect the company’s current financial condition. And it must do so in a timely fashion.
The system must be clear, logical, and easy to use. Information should be understandable to all company officers and executive staff without the need for complex interpretation by the accountant.
The system must provide useful information that officers and staff can use in making decisions and achieving the company’s goals.
But even if the company’s accountants are the best in the world, it won’t matter much if the nonfinancial managers around them basically take the information in their reports and file it away—either horizontally or vertically—because they don’t have much idea how the numbers were generated or what they mean.
Word About Costs When Creating a Budget Plan – part 2
Posted by admin in consulting, effective budgeting, production cycles, short-term income, variable costs on August 1st, 2009
Variable costs are a little different and allow you some budgeting flexibility. These are costs that fluctuate directly with the amount of business you support. Variable costs—costs that are business-dependent—include supply of goods and materials and, to some degree, part-time labor necessary to keep the business operating apace with demand.
Semi-variable costs are expenses with components that are fixed and components that are variable. For example, telephone expenses are semi-variable costs in that the monthly service charge is fixed and the charges for long-distance calls and the 800 number are variable.
Budget Components – part 1
Posted by admin in consulting, management skills, manufacturing, market forecasts, revenue on July 31st, 2009
Each budget will have two main sections, and a good manager will come to know each of these sections as intimately as his or her own family.
The first section measures company revenues, or income from sales, investments, and any other sources. You need to match up your expected revenues with your expected expenses, the other main part of the budget.
Say you work for a luxury boat manufacturer. Your company itemizes revenue from the sales of a certain type of speedboat. On the expense side, it then has to make sure the costs involved in building this boat will be less than the revenues it will generate. You don’t want to build speedboats that cost more than people pay for them.
Stepping into the Budgeting Process
Posted by admin in consulting, effective budgeting, performance objectives, production cycles, revenue on July 31st, 2009
Define the tactics that will help a department or company achieve its objectives. Goals and objectives can be achieved only if the company sets out a tactical game plan. There are different ways to get from Point A to Point B and a company’s success will depend on choosing effective tactics to reach those goals. The cost of pursuing those tactics also will be part of the overall budget, reflected as part of the cost of doing business.
The best tactics usually yield the highest reward, whether that’s in terms of annual earnings, market share gain, or growth potential. But tactics vary with each situation, each company, and each strategy. The important thing is that those tactics are reflected in the budget in terms of their effect on both the revenue and expense side.
Identify procedures to help achieve that goal. Procedures are to tactics what objectives are to goals. They are more specific, more operationally oriented—almost mechanical.
Stepping into the Budgeting Process – part 2
Posted by admin in consulting, effective budgeting, financial growth, performance objectives on July 30th, 2009
What company goals does the budget embrace? These goals usually include profitability, but they also include investing in the company’s ability to develop new product and service offerings to customers to help assure the company will be around tomorrow. Nearly all budgets help managers develop a balance between making money today and making money tomorrow.
What objectives can be identified in the budget? Goals are important, but only clearly identified performance objectives will make them happen. Objectives clearly spelled out are crucial so that all parts of the company understand and pursue the same goals.
If your company’s business is manufacturing and marketing luxury powerboats, its objective might be to increase sales 15 percent or establish a new outlet in a neigh-boring city. Increased sales of related paraphernalia as a financial objective might be a secondary objective. All such initiatives need to be reflected in the budget because all are strategic goals that will have either a positive or a negative impact on the bottom line.